| 气候变化对媒介传播性疾病传播影响的评估模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨国静,杨坤,周晓农.气候变化对媒介传播性疾病传播影响的评估模型[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(4):259-264. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨国静 杨坤 周晓农 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所2. 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所 |
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| 基金项目： | UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Discases，国家传染病重大专项项目，国家"十一五"科技支撑计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 旨在综述评估各类模型在媒介传播性疾病中的应用前景。首先对媒介传播性疾病的流行及其与气候特征间的相关关系进行了分析,在此基础上综述了评估模型的种类与评估方法,包括气候因子决定性模型和数理统计学模型两大类,并分别以疟疾、血吸虫病和登革热等3种媒介传播性疾病为例,列举了两类模型在这些疾病中的应用与评估方法。最后提出了气候变化对媒介传播性疾病传播影响的未来研究方向和重点,今后研究要评估气候变化对疾病传播造成的已有影响,预测未来影响范围与强度及预见未来变局,并提出科学的适应对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 媒介传播性疾病 决定性模型 统计学模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-1-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-2-12
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Assessment Models for Impact of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases Transmission |
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| Yang Guojing,Yang Kun,Zhou Xiaonong.Assessment Models for Impact of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases Transmission[J].Advances in Climate Change,2010,6(4):259-264. |
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| Authors: | Yang Guojing Yang Kun Zhou Xiaonong |
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| Abstract: | The purpose of this review is to introduce various models for assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and their application in the future. The paper firstly analyzes the correlation between vector-borne diseases transmission and climate characteristics, and then reviews two categories of assessing models, i.e. deterministic and statistic models, which are exampled with the assessment of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue fever transmitted diseases, respectively. Finally, future research priorities on the assessment models for vector-borne diseases are also given. |
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| Keywords: | climate change vector-borne diseases deterministic model statistic model |
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