| 天水市干旱气候变化特征及粮食作物结构调整 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨小利,姚小英,蒲金涌,马鹏里.天水市干旱气候变化特征及粮食作物结构调整[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(3):179-184. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨小利 姚小英 蒲金涌 马鹏里 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省天水市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省气象局十人计划项目，中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所干旱气象基金，科技部公益行业科研专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了天水市1960-2005年干旱气候特征，包括温度、降水等气候因子及土壤水分、干旱频次等变化特点。结果表明，20世纪90年代为近46 a来降水的最低值，进入21世纪后，降水变率明显增大。气温自20世纪60年代总体呈上升趋势，特别是90年代以来上升趋势明显，土壤蒸散发加大。20世纪90年代土壤含水量最少，水分亏缺最为严重，春旱、初夏旱、伏旱出现几率最多。根据46 a来干旱气候变化特点及其对主要粮食作物生长的影响,引进影响系数,对主要夏、秋粮作物种植风险程度进行评估,并运用线性风险决策模式, 提出适应干旱气候特点的当地主要粮食作物种植比例调整方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱气候变化 粮食作物 结构调整 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-8-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-11-18
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Changes of Arid Climate in Tianshui and Adjustment of Planting Structure of Summer and Autumn Crops |
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| Yang Xiaoli,Yao Xiaoying,Pu Jinyong,Ma Pengli.Changes of Arid Climate in Tianshui and Adjustment of Planting Structure of Summer and Autumn Crops[J].Advances in Climate Change,2009,5(3):179-184. |
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| Authors: | Yang Xiaoli Yao Xiaoying Pu Jinyong Ma Pengli |
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| Abstract: | The characteristics and changes of arid climate, including temperature, precipitation and other factors, such as drought frequency and soil moisture, were analyzed for 1960-2005 in Tianshui, Gansu Province. The results indicate that precipitation in the 1990s was the least in recent 50 years, the change rate of precipitation has increased obviously since the 21st century. Temperature has increased generally since the 1960s, especially in the 1990s. The soil moisture was the lowest and in serious deficit; and spring drought, early summer drought and midsummer drought occurred more frequently in the 1990s. According to the change characteristics of arid climate and their effects on the growth of grain crops, the influence coefficient of drought to the yield of grain crops was introduced, and levels of the planting risk of main summer and autumn crops were also assessed. Finally, a plan of planting structure adjustment for main grain crops adapting to changes in arid climate is also provided based on a linear risk decision model. |
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| Keywords: | arid climate change grain crops adjustment of planting structure |
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