| 基于GEV分布的天山开都河洪水频率特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄粤,陈曦,刘铁,马勇刚.基于GEV分布的天山开都河洪水频率特征分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(1):37-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄粤 陈曦 刘铁 马勇刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，乌鲁木齐 830011；
2 新疆科技战略发展研究院，乌鲁木齐 830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 干旱区典型流域极端洪水时空演变与预测研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文选择天山开都河流域为研究区，基于巴音布鲁克和大山口2个水文站1957-2011年的日径流量观测资料，采用年最大值法（AM）抽取径流序列样本，用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt检验分析年最大日流量、春季最大日流量和夏季最大日流量序列的变化规律；并运用广义极值分布（GEV）对标准化的最大日流量序列进行拟合，分析洪水频率的变化特征。结果表明：提取的6个最大日流量序列均不存在明显的趋势性，且突变点不显著；其中巴音布鲁克站年最大日流量、春季最大日流量和大山口站年最大日流量序列近似服从Frechet分布，而大山口站春季最大日流量、夏季最大日流量和巴音布鲁克站夏季最大日流量序列则服从Gumbel分布。1980年代以来，开都河流域洪水的发生频次明显增加；巴音布鲁克站夏季洪水次数持续增加，大山口站春季和夏季洪水次数均呈增加趋势，且春季洪水出现时间均有所提前。春季显著升温与冬季降水增加，是春季融雪性洪水出现时间和水量变化的主要原因；而夏季降雨量和降雨频率显著增加，是夏季洪水形成与频率变化的主导因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 洪水 GEV分布 内陆河 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-08-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-10-19 |
Flood Frequency Analysis for Kaidu Watershed in Tianshan Mountains |
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| Huang Yue,Chen Xi,Liu Tie,Ma Yonggang.Flood Frequency Analysis for Kaidu Watershed in Tianshan Mountains[J].Advances in Climate Change,2016,12(1):37-44. |
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| Authors: | Huang Yue Chen Xi Liu Tie Ma Yonggang |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;2.Xinjiang Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy, Urumqi 830011, China |
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| Abstract: | Increase of the intensity and frequency of extreme flood events has been a big challenge of regional water resources security. Based on daily discharge data during 1957-2011 in the Kaidu watershed, annual maximum daily discharge, maximum daily discharge in spring and maximum daily discharge in summer at Bayblk and Dashankou hydrological stations are extracted, respectively. Linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt test are used to analysis the variation of the 6 series. Then, the series are selected to describe the extreme distributions of GEV, and frequency of extreme floods is analyzed. The results indicated that, there are no significant trend and no change point in the 6 series in which the annual maximum daily discharge at Bayblk station, the annual maximum daily discharge at Dashankou station and the maximum daily discharge in spring at Bayblk station fitted the Frechet distribution, and the maximum daily discharge in spring at Dashankou station, the maximum daily discharge in summer at Bayblk station and the maximum daily discharge in summer at Dashankou station fitted the Gumbel distribution. Since 1980s, frequency of extreme floods in the Kaidu River obviously increased; the number of floods in summer continuous increase at the Bayblk station, and the number of floods both in spring and summer increase at Dashankou station; occurrence time of spring floods shift to an earlier date at both two hydrological stations. The increase of precipitation in winter, and the rise of temperature in spring have important contribution to spring flood changes; the increase of extreme rainfall in summer would be dominant factors for changes of summer floods. |
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| Keywords: | climate change extreme flood GEV distribution inland river |
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