| 气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王书霞,张利平,李意,佘敦先.气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(1):23-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王书霞 张利平 李意 佘敦先 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉 430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603704) |
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| 摘 要： | 以澜沧江流域为研究对象,基于ISIMIP2b协议中提供的GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-LR、MIROC5这4种全球气候模式,通过4种模式的输出数据耦合VIC模型,分析4种模式在历史时期（1961—2005年)对洪峰洪量极值(年最大洪峰流量、3 d最大洪量)、极端洪水的模拟能力,比较RCR2.6和RCP6.0两种情景下未来时期（2021—2050年)年均径流量较基准期（1971—2000年)的变化情况,并结合P-III型分布曲线预估了澜沧江流域在两种情景下未来时期极端洪水的强度变化情况。结果表明：VIC模型在该流域能够较好地模拟极端洪水;HadGEM2-ES和MIROC5两种气候模式的输出数据在澜沧江流域有较好的径流模拟适用性;在RCP2.6情景下,澜沧江流域未来时期年均径流量没有明显变化,可能会有略微的增加,而在RCP6.0情景下,未来时期年均径流量有较大可能增加;澜沧江流域未来时期极端洪水较基准期,在RCP2.6情景下无明显变化,而在RCP6.0情景下,洪峰、洪量增加的可能性较大,极端洪水频率和强度也较大可能增加。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候模式 VIC模型 极端洪水 澜沧江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-07-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-09-14 |
Extreme flood in the Lancang River Basin under climate change |
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| Shu-Xia WANG,Li-Ping ZHANG,Yi LI,Dun-Xian SHE.Extreme flood in the Lancang River Basin under climate change[J].Advances in Climate Change,2019,15(1):23-32. |
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| Authors: | Shu-Xia WANG Li-Ping ZHANG Yi LI Dun-Xian SHE |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | Taking the Lancang River Basin as the study area, the ISIMIP2b protocol having provided four global climate models: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5, combining with the VIC model, the ability of simulation, on the extreme value of flood peak and flood volumes (annual maximum flood peak flow, the maximum flood volumes during three days) and extreme floods, was analyzed, in the historical periods (from 1961 to 2005). The changes of average annual runoff volume in the future periods (from 2021 to 2050) compared with the base periods (from 1971 to 2000) under the two scenarios of RCR2.6 and RCP6.0 were also analyzed. Then the P-III distribution curve was combined to predict the intensity of extreme floods in the Lancang River Basin in the future periods. The VIC model can better simulate extreme flood in this basin. The output datas of HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 climate models have good applicability for runoff simulation in the Lancang River Basin; in the scenario of RCP2.6, the average annual runoff volume in the Lancang River Basin does not change significantly in the future, and may increase slightly, while in the scenario of RCP6.0, the average annual runoff in the future may increase significantly compared with the historical periods; the extreme floods in the Lancang River Basin in the future periods, have no obvious changes under the RCP2.6 scenario. While, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the flood peak and flood volumes are more likely to increase, and frequency and intensity of the extreme floods are also likely to increase. |
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| Keywords: | Climate model VIC model Extreme flood Lancang River Basin |
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