| 基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张强,黎楠,陈文颖,单葆国,张成龙,尹硕.基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(1):54-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张强 黎楠 陈文颖 单葆国 张成龙 尹硕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 1000842 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京 1022093 国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,郑州 450052 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家电网公司科技项目(5217L017000N);科技部课题“减缓气候变化评估” |
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| 摘 要： | 基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。
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| 关 键 词： | GDP 省区协调发展 基尼系数 柯布-道格拉斯函数 ARIMA模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-05-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-09-02 |
Provincial GDP projection model based on balanced development |
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| Qiang ZHANG,Nan LI,Wen-Ying CHEN,Bao-Guo SHAN,Cheng-Long ZHANG,Shuo YIN.Provincial GDP projection model based on balanced development[J].Advances in Climate Change,2019,15(1):54-61. |
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| Authors: | Qiang ZHANG Nan LI Wen-Ying CHEN Bao-Guo SHAN Cheng-Long ZHANG Shuo YIN |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China2 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China3 Economics &Technology Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China; |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a GDP projection model was constructed based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Under the consideration of balanced development the Gini coefficient of provincial GDP per capita was used to measure the degree of development balance. This model projects Chinese provincial GDP and GDP per capita from 2016 to 2050. Based on the balanced development from technology, labor, and capital. The projection results show that from 2016 to 2050, the gap between the GDP and GDP per capita in each province will shrink and the Gini coefficient will decline. In this projection, the Gini coefficient will decrease from 0.219 in 2015 to 0.176 in 2030 and then to 0.137 in 2050. The results also show that development of each province will tend to be balanced in the future. |
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| Keywords: | GDP Provincial balanced development Gini coefficient Cobb-Douglas function ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model |
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