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| 松花江流域气候变化及ECHAM5模式预估 | |
| 引用本文： | 曾小凡,李巧萍,苏布达,刘玉莲,陈华.松花江流域气候变化及ECHAM5模式预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(4):215-219. |
| 作者姓名： | 曾小凡 李巧萍 苏布达 刘玉莲 陈华 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京,210008;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 2. 中国气象局气候变化中心,北京,100081 3. 黑龙江省气候中心,哈尔滨,150050 4. 湖北省荆门市沙洋县林业局五里铺林业管理站,荆门,448268 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，中国气象局气候研究开放实验室基金 |
| 摘 要： | 根据松花江流域1961-2000年观测气温、降水量资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域21世纪前50 a气候变化的预估结果，分析了松花江流域1961-2000年年平均气温和年降水量变化，并对21世纪前50 a气温和降水量变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明，在全球变暖的背景下，作为中国气候变暖区域响应的先锋，松花江流域年平均气温自1980年代初持续升高，升温幅度比较显著；年降水量在1961-2000年无明显增加或减少趋势，年代际差异也不大。相对于1961-1990年的气候场，21世纪前半叶，年平均气温仍将呈明显增加趋势，到2040年代升温幅度达1℃以上，年降水量变化趋势不显著，可能微弱增加，但冬季平均气温和冬季降水量都呈增加趋势，春季降水量也为增加趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 松花江流域 气温 降水量 气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-9-3 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-10-25 |
Change and Projection of Climate in the Songhua River Basin |
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| Zeng Xiaofan,Li Qiaoping,Su Buda,Liu Yulian,Chen Hua.Change and Projection of Climate in the Songhua River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change,2009,5(4):215-219. | |
| Authors: | Zeng Xiaofan Li Qiaoping Su Buda Liu Yulian Chen Hua |
| Institution: | 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences2. National Climate Center |
| Abstract: | Based on observed temperature and precipitation data from 1961-2000 and climate projection in the first 50 years of the 21 st century by ECHAM5/MPI-OM, changes of annual temperature and precipitation in the Songhua River basin were analyzed. The results show that annual temperature has increased dramatically since the beghnning of the 1980s under global warming, but annual precipitation had no significant change trends except small decadal variations from 1961 to 2000. Relative to 1961-1990, annual temperature will increase significantly in the first 50 years of the 21st century, with an increment of more than 1 ℃ before the end of the 2040s; and annual precipitation will show no obvious trends in the first 50 years of the 21 st century, but winter precipitation and temperature will increase, and spring precipitation will also increase. |
| Keywords: | Songhua River basin temperature precipitation climate change projection |
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