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| 基于ECHAM5模式预估2050年前中国旱涝格局趋势 | |
| 引用本文： | 翟建青,曾小凡,苏布达,姜彤.基于ECHAM5模式预估2050年前中国旱涝格局趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(4):220-225. |
| 作者姓名： | 翟建青 曾小凡 苏布达 姜彤 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,南京,210008;中国气象局国家气候中心,北京,100081;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,南京,210008;中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,南京,210008 3. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京,100081;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金,淮河流域气象开放研究基金,水利部公益性行业科研专项基金 |
| 摘 要： | 利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式输出的2001-2050年逐月降水量资料,考虑IPCC采用的3种排放情景（A2：温室气体高排放情景;A1B:温室气体中排放情景;B1：温室气体低排放情景）,计算其标准化降水指数,分析了中国2050年前3种排放情景下的旱涝格局。结果表明：3种情景下旱涝趋势空间分布不同,其中A2情景下旱涝格局同1961-2000年观测到的旱涝格局相似,均存在一条由东北向西南的干旱带;而A1B和B1情景下旱涝格局则发生了很大的变化,尤其B1情景下出现了"北涝南旱"的格局。未来50 a干旱面积在A2情景下呈略增加趋势;A1B和B1情景下为减少趋势。3种情景下干旱频率的空间分布也各不相同。 |
| 关 键 词： | 旱涝格局 标准化降水指数（SPI） ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式 排放情景 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-12-1 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-1-12 |
Patterns of Dryness/Wetness in China Before 2050 Projected by the ECHAM5 Model |
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| Zhai Jianqing,Zeng Xiaofan,Su Buda,Jiang Tong.Patterns of Dryness/Wetness in China Before 2050 Projected by the ECHAM5 Model[J].Advances in Climate Change,2009,5(4):220-225. | |
| Authors: | Zhai Jianqing Zeng Xiaofan Su Buda Jiang Tong |
| Institution: | 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences2. National Climate Center |
| Abstract: | This study investigated future spatial distribution of dryness/wetness in China during the first 50 years of 21st century according to standardized precipitation index (SPI) which was calculated from the monthly precipitation data projected by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model under the SRES-A2 (high emission), SRES-A1B (mediate emission) and SRES-B1 (low emission) scenarios of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results show that the projected dryness/wetness pattern in the future 50 years under the SRES-A2 scenario is similar to the observed one in 1961-2000, i.e. there is a SW-NE oriented drought belt from Southwest China to Northeast China; but the projected patterns under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios are different, especially under the SRES-B1 scenario, a north-wetness-south-dryness pattern was projected. The area of drought was projected to weakly increase under the SRES-A2 scenario but to decline under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios. Spatial distributions of the frequency of droughts were also projected to be different from each other. |
| Keywords: | dryness/wetness pattern standardized precipitation index (SPI) ECHAMS/MPI-OM climate model emission scenario China |
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