| 2011-2050年长江流域气候变化预估问题的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾小凡,周建中,翟建青,苏布达,熊明.2011-2050年长江流域气候变化预估问题的探讨[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):116-122. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾小凡 周建中 翟建青 苏布达 熊明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院;2. 中国气象局国家气候中心;3. 长江水利委员会水文局; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"973"重点基础研究发展计划课题，国家"973"重点基础研究发展计划课题，2010年中国气象局气候变化专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用长江流域1961-2008年观测气象资料,对IPCC第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式及所有模式集合平均进行比较验证,结果表明:MIUB_ECHO_G模式对该地区降水模拟能力较强,NCAR_CCSM3模式对温度模拟效果较好.进一步利用MIUB_ECHO_G模式和NCAR_CCSM3模式结果在SRES-A2、-A1B...
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| 关 键 词： | 气候模式比较 气候预估 排放情景 长江流域 |
Research on Climate Projection for the Period 2011-2050 in the Yangtze River Basin |
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| Zeng Xiaofan,Zhou Jianzhong,Zhai Jianqing,Su Buda,Xiong Ming.Research on Climate Projection for the Period 2011-2050 in the Yangtze River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change,2011,7(2):116-122. |
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| Authors: | Zeng Xiaofan Zhou Jianzhong Zhai Jianqing Su Buda Xiong Ming |
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| Institution: | Zeng Xiaofan1,Zhou Jianzhong1,Zhai Jianqing2,Su Buda2,Xiong Ming3(1 School of Hydropower & Information Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China,2 National Climate Change Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,3 Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China) |
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| Abstract: | Simulation abilities of different global climate models(GCMs) are different for a specific region.To select the applicable GCMs to project climate change in the Yangtze River basin,observed climate data from 1961 to 2008 were used to compare the 12 GCMs from IPCC-AR4.The results show that MIUB_ECHO_G model had better simulation ability for precipitation than the rest GCMs,and NCAR_CCSM3 model had better simulation ability for temperature.Based on the projected data by the two models,future annual and season... |
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| Keywords: | comparison of GCMs climate projection emission scenarios Yangtze River basin |
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