| SROCC:海洋热含量变化评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 成里京.SROCC:海洋热含量变化评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2020,16(2):172-181. |
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| 作者姓名： | 成里京 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603202)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 工业革命以来,大气中温室气体不断增加,驱动了全球变暖。IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)指出,人类排放的温室气体导致的地球系统能量增加中90%以上都被海洋吸收,使得海洋增暖,海洋热含量增加。IPCC最新发布的《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)发现：自1970年以来,几乎确定海洋上层2000 m在持续增暖。1993—2017年间的增暖速率至少为1969—1993年的2倍,体现出显著的变暖增强趋势。此外,在20世纪90年代以后,2000 m以下的深海也已观测到了变暖信号,尤其是在南大洋(30°S以南)。在1970—2017年间,南大洋上层2000 m储存了全球海洋约35%~43%的热量,在2005—2017年期间增加到45%~62%。基于耦合气候模型预估,几乎可确定海洋将在21世纪持续增暖,2018—2100年间海洋热含量上升幅度可能是1970—2017年间的5~7倍(RCP8.5情景)或2~4倍(RCP2.6情景)。变暖导致的热膨胀效应贡献了1993年以来全球海平面上升的约43%。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告(SROCC) 热含量 加速 南大洋 海平面 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-10-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-10-17 |
SROCC: assessment of the ocean heat content change |
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| CHENG Li-Jing.SROCC: assessment of the ocean heat content change[J].Advances in Climate Change,2020,16(2):172-181. |
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| Authors: | CHENG Li-Jing |
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| Institution: | International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | The greenhouse gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an Earth’s energy imbalance that leads to global heating. IPCC AR5 indicated that the ocean has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system. It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970, which is attributed to anthropogenic forcing. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has likely more than doubled. The deep ocean below 2000 m has likely warmed since 1992, especially in the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean accounted for 35%-43% of the total heat gain in the upper 2000 m global ocean between 1970 and 2017(high confidence). Its share increased to 45%-62% between 2005 and 2017. It is virtually certain that the ocean will continue warming throughout the 21 st century. By 2100, the top 2000 m of the ocean is projected to take up 5-7 times more heat under RCP8.5(or 2-4 times more heat under RCP2.6) than the observed accumulated ocean heat uptake within 1970-2017. The thermal expansion due to ocean warming contributes to ~ 43% of the global sea level rise since 1993. |
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| Keywords: | Special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (SROCC) Ocean heat content Accelerate Southern Ocean Sea level |
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