| 城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘俊伶,王克,夏侯沁蕊,刘芳名,邹骥,孔英.城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2020,16(3):355-366. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘俊伶 王克 夏侯沁蕊 刘芳名 邹骥 孔英 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)经济管理学院,深圳 518055;清华大学清华 - 伯克利深圳学院,深圳 518055;中国人民大学环境学院,北京 100872;清华大学清华 - 伯克利深圳学院,深圳 518055;约克大学经济系,多伦多 M3J1P3,加拿大 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金资助项目“低碳转型背景下中国煤电二氧化碳排放锁定效应研究”(2019M650725);“深圳低碳城市大数据工程实验室”项目(深发改[2017]1089号);“应对气候变化与低碳经济学科建设”项目(深发改[2018]725号) |
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| 摘 要： | 在中国经济步入新常态之际,为了研究城镇化背景下的长期碳排放趋势,构建了人口变动与能源系统互动的综合分析框架与社会经济-能源系统模型。结果显示,从2014年至2050年,预计有3亿人口从农村流向城市,并呈现从中小型城市逐步向大型和特大型城市汇集的趋势。人口流动趋势与人民生活质量改善结合,推动中国基础设施建设、工业产品生产和能源服务需求增长。基准情景下,2050年中国一次能源消费总量达到84亿tce,能源相关CO2排放达到176亿t,比2013年增长83%;而在低碳转型情景下,通过技术创新,2050年中国一次能源消费需求可以控制在61亿tce左右,CO2排放在2020—2025年间达峰,2050年比基准情景降低78%。低碳转型过程中,非化石能源电力和能效技术的减排潜力最大,工业和电力部门率先在2020年达峰,建筑和交通 ①（①按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,工业、建筑、交通均属于终端能源消费部门,其中建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗;交通部门能耗指所有交通活动能耗,既包括交通运输业营运类运输工具的交通能耗,也包括私人、公务非营运类运输工具的交通能耗 1]。）将在2030年左右达峰。实现低碳转型所需新增固定投资占GDP的1.5%,不会给国民经济带来重大负担。中国实施新型城镇化战略具有技术和经济可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇化 人口流动 消费需求 低碳转型 自下而上模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-08 |
Study on China’s long-term low carbon transition pathway under the urbanization process |
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| Jun-Ling LIU,Ke WANG,Qin-Rui XIAHOU,Fang-Ming LIU,Ji ZOU,Ying KONG.Study on China’s long-term low carbon transition pathway under the urbanization process[J].Advances in Climate Change,2020,16(3):355-366. |
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| Authors: | Jun-Ling LIU Ke WANG Qin-Rui XIAHOU Fang-Ming LIU Ji ZOU Ying KONG |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China2 Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China3 School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China4 Department of Economics, York University, Toronto M3J1P3, Canada |
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| Abstract: | As China’ economy enters the “new normal”, this paper develops a comprehensive analysis framework and socioeconomic-energy system model that interlinks demographic change and energy system in order to analyze the urbanization process and its relation with China’s long-term CO2 emissions trend. The results show that, toward 2050, around 300 million people are expected to migrate from rural area to urban area with a flow trend of people moving gradually from small and medium city groups to large and super city groups. The population migration trend together with the living standard improvement will promote China’s infrastructure construction, industry production and energy service demand growth. In the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, in 2050, total primary energy consumption will reach 8.4 Gtce in China, energy related CO2 emissions will grow to 17.6 Gt, which is 83% higher than 2013 level. While in the Low Carbon Transition (LCT) scenario, with technology innovation, total primary energy demand for China in 2050 could be controlled at around 6.1 Gtce, CO2 emissions would peak during 2020-2025 and decline quickly to 78% lower than BAU scenario. In the transition process, non-fossil fuel power generation and energy efficiency technologies have the largest mitigation potentials, and industry and power sectors would peak first before 2020, followed by building and transport sectors which peak around 2030. The total additional capital investment required for low carbon transition would account for 1.5% of GDP, therefore not a huge burden for the whole economy. It is technologically and economically feasible for China to implement new urbanization strategy. |
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| Keywords: | Urbanization Population migration Consumption demand Low carbon transition Bottom-up model |
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