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| 减缓气候变化社会经济评价研究的最新进展——对IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告的评述 | |
| 引用本文： | 邹骥,滕飞,傅莎.减缓气候变化社会经济评价研究的最新进展——对IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告的评述[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):313-322. |
| 作者姓名： | 邹骥 滕飞 傅莎 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京100038;中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872 2. 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京,100084 3. 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京,100038 |
| 基金项目： | CDM基金项目“IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组支撑研究”，CDM基金项目“关于德班平台重大战略问题和总体战略的研究”，科技部国家科技支撑计划项目“气候变化谈判关键议题的支撑技术研究” |
| 摘 要： | IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告是在世界经济、能源、温室气体排放、技术、全球气候治理等战略格局经历着深刻调整，新一轮国际气候谈判正在进行期间完成的。本文从IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告的主线思路论争，减缓气候变化社会经济评价的概念体系构建，温室气体排放的历史趋势与动因，实现2℃温升控制目标的转型路径，支持路径转型的体制与政策选择和减缓气候变化知识体系与方法学发展等方面，对该报告进行了评述，并从中国低碳发展战略方向与政策取向、未来如何正确解读与应用该报告的科学信息和结论等方面提出了建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 减缓气候变化 社会经济评价 IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-08-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-08-28 |
The Latest Progress in Socioeconomic Assessment of the Mitigation of Climate Change- Review of the IPCC Fifth Assessment WGIII Report |
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| Zou Ji,Teng Fei,Fu Sha.The Latest Progress in Socioeconomic Assessment of the Mitigation of Climate Change- Review of the IPCC Fifth Assessment WGIII Report[J].Advances in Climate Change,2014,10(5):313-322. | |
| Authors: | Zou Ji Teng Fei Fu Sha |
| Institution: | 1.National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China; 2.School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China; 3.Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084, China |
| Abstract: | IPCC WGIII AR5 is developed in the context of deeply restructuring the strategic profile of the world’s economy, energy, GHG emission, technologies, and the global climate governance, and when the new round of international climate talk, known as Durban Platform process, has been underway. Starting from a discussion on the different understandings of the storyline for the IPCC WGIII AR5, this paper reviews and explores varies of issues, including framing concepts for socioeconomic assessment of climate mitigation, historical trends and corresponding drivers of greenhouse gases emission trajectories, transformation pathways to achieve a target of temperature rise less than 2℃, institutional and policy options to support the pathway transformation, as well as evolution of knowledge system and methodologies for socioeconomic assessment of climate mitigation. Based on reviewing the key messages from WGIII AR5, the authors come up with several recommendations on developing China’s strategy and policy options for its low carbon development and correct interpretation and application of knowledge and information from AR5 in the future studies on the socioeconomic assessment of climate mitigation in China. |
| Keywords: | climate change mitigation socioeconomic assessment IPCC WGⅢ AR5 |
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