| 气候变化和水的最新科学认知 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴绍洪,赵宗慈.气候变化和水的最新科学认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(3):125-133. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴绍洪 赵宗慈 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所2. 国家气候中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划，中国气象局气候变化专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2008年4月8日正式通过了"气候变化和水"技术报告。该报告建立在IPCC 3个工作组第四次评估报告的基础上，客观、全面而审慎地评估了与水有关的气候变化以及对水的过去、现在和未来的认知。最重要的进展是：过去几十年观测到全球变暖已经与大尺度水文循环的大规模变化联系在一起；气候模型对21世纪的模拟结果一致显示出降水在高纬和部分热带地区将增加，而在部分亚热带和中低纬地区将减少的结果；预计到21世纪中期，河流年平均径流和水量可能会因为高纬和部分湿润热带地区的气候变化而增加，而在中低纬和干旱热带将可能减少；许多地方降水强度和变率的增加将使洪旱危险性上升；预计冰雪储藏的水的补给将在本世纪减少；预计较高的水温和极端变化，包括洪旱等，将影响水质并加剧水污染；对全球而言，气候变化对淡水系统负面影响将超过收益；预计由于气候变化导致的水量-水质变化将影响食物的产量、稳定性、流通和利用；气候变化影响现有水的基础设施的功能和运行，包括水电、防洪、排水、灌溉系统，同时影响到水的管理；目前的水管理措施不足以应对气候变化的影响；气候变化挑战"过去水文上的经验能得到未来的情况"的传统说法；为保障平水和干旱情况所设计的适应选择，必须综合需水和供水双方的战略；减缓措施可以降低升温对全球水资源的影响程度，进而减低适应的需求；水资源管理明显地影响到很多其他政策领域。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水 IPCC 技术报告 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-10-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-2-9
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Updated Understanding of Climate Change and Water |
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| Wu Shaohong,Zhao Zongci.Updated Understanding of Climate Change and Water[J].Advances in Climate Change,2009,5(3):125-133. |
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| Authors: | Wu Shaohong Zhao Zongci |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences2. National Climate Center |
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| Abstract: | "limate Change and Water", the IPCC technical paper contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was launched on 8th April 2008. Based on three assessment reports of the IPCC AR4, this technical paper summarizes the newest peer-reviewed and comprehensive findings from international scientific communities on climate change and water for past, present and future. The robust key findings are: observed global warming over several decades has been linked to large-scale changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle. Climate models simulations for the 21st century are consistent in projecting precipitation increases at high latitudes and in parts of the tropics, and decreases while in some subtropical and lower mid-latitude regions. By the middle of the 21st century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase as a result of climate change at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Increased precipitation intensity and variability is projected to increase the risks of flooding and drought in many areas. Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline in the course of the century. Higher water temperatures, and changes in extremes, including floods and droughts are projected to affect water quality and exacerbate many forms of water pollution. Globally, the negative impacts of future climate change on freshwater systems are expected to outweigh the benefits. Changes in water quantity and quality due to climate change are expected to affect food availability, stability, access, and utilization. Climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure-including hydropower, structural flood defenses, drainage, and irrigation systems-as well as water management practices. Current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change. Climate change challenges the traditional assumption that past hydrological experience provides a good guide to future conditions. Adaptation options designed to ensure water supply during average and drought conditions require integrated demand-side as well as supply-side strategies. Mitigation measures can reduce the magnitude of impacts of global warming on water resources, in turn reducing adaptation needs. Water resources management has clear impacts on many other policy areas. |
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| Keywords: | IPCC |
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