| CWRF模式对长江流域极端降水气候事件的模拟能力评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 孙晨,汪方,周月华,李兰.CWRF模式对长江流域极端降水气候事件的模拟能力评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2022,18(1):44-57. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 孙晨 汪方 周月华 李兰 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.武汉区域气候中心,武汉 4300742 国家气候中心 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 1000813 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508002);湖北省气象局科技课题(2020Q05);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0196000)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于1980—2016年长江流域站点观测降水,评估了CWRF区域气候模式对长江流域面雨量和极端降水气候事件的模拟能力。结果表明：CWRF模式能较好地再现1980—2016年长江流域及不同分区降水空间分布及月/季面雨量年际变率,且在冬、春季表现较好,夏、秋季次之。CWRF模式对长江流域面雨量存在系统性高估,对面雨量的模拟能力在长江中下游明显优于长江上游和金沙江,这可能和长江流域上游及金沙江地区地形复杂、站点稀少导致的面雨量实况代表性不足,以及CWRF模式自身模拟能力欠缺均有关。CWRF模式对长江流域极端降水事件也具备一定的模拟能力,能较好反映出长江中下游的变湿趋势,对长江上游极端强降水减弱而长江中下游地区极端强降水增强的趋势均有所体现,但对于日尺度极端降水和复杂地形下的降水模拟效果不佳。
|
| 关 键 词： | CWRF 长江流域 面雨量 极端降水 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-10-29 |
An assessment on extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River basin as simulated by CWRF regional climate model |
| |
| SUN Chen,WANG Fang,ZHOU Yue-Hua,LI Lan.An assessment on extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River basin as simulated by CWRF regional climate model[J].Advances in Climate Change,2022,18(1):44-57. |
| |
| Authors: | SUN Chen WANG Fang ZHOU Yue-Hua LI Lan |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China2 National Climate Center/Climate Research Open Laboratory of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China3 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the station observation data from 1980 to 2016, the CWRF model’s ability to simulate area rainfall and extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River basin was evaluated. The results showed that the CWRF model well reproduced the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and the monthly/seasonal variation characteristics of area rainfall in different regions from 1980 to 2016, and the CWRF model performance was better in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. CWRF model had a systematic overestimation on area rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, and the simulation capability for area rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was higher than that in the upper reaches and the Jinsha River. This may be due to the inadequate representation of observation area rainfall caused by the complex topography and the scarcity of stations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin and the Jinsha River area, as well as the lack in simulation capabilities of the CWRF model. CWRF model also presented certain capabilities to simulate extreme precipitation events, which could well reflect the wetting trend of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Additionally, the weakening trend of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the increasing trend in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River could be reflected. However, the numerical simulation capability for extreme daily precipitation and precipitation in complex terrain were insufficient. |
| |
| Keywords: | CWRF Yangtze River basin Area rainfall Extreme precipitation |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
