| IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张通,俞永强,效存德,华莉娟,闫展.IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2022,18(1):12-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张通 俞永强 效存德 华莉娟 闫展 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 1008752 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京 1000293 中国科学院大学,北京 1000494 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室(LASW),北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家海洋局极地考察办公室极地科学协同创新平台项目(CXPT2020006);国家重点研发计划“格陵兰冰盖监测、模拟与气候影响研究”(2018YFC1406100);北京师范大学人才引进项目“冰冻圈影响区承载力和恢复力研究”(12807-312232101)。 |
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| 摘 要： | IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告第九章综合评估了与海平面相关的最新监测和数值模拟结果,指出目前（2006—2018年）的海平面上升速率处于加速状态（3.7 mm/a),并会在未来持续上升,且呈现不可逆的趋势。其中低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）和高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下,到2050年,预估全球平均海平面（GMSL）分别上升0.15~0.23 m和0.20~0.30 m;到2100年,预估GMSL分别上升0.28~0.55 m和0.63~1.02 m。南极冰盖不稳定性是影响未来海平面上升预估的最大不确定性来源之一。区域海平面变化是影响沿海极端静水位的重要因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球平均海平面（GMSL） 区域极端海平面 冰盖变化 海洋动力过程 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-10-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-10-25 |
Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report:monitoring and projections of global and regional sea level change |
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| ZHANG Tong,YU Yong-Qiang,XIAO Cun-De,HUA Li-Juan,YAN Zhan.Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report:monitoring and projections of global and regional sea level change[J].Advances in Climate Change,2022,18(1):12-18. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Tong YU Yong-Qiang XIAO Cun-De HUA Li-Juan YAN Zhan |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China4 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the latest monitoring and simulation results indicate that the current rate of sea level rise is accelerating (3.7 mm/a) and will continue to rise in the future, showing an irreversible trend. Under low emission scenarios (SSP1-1.9) and high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), global mean sea level (GMSL) is projected to rise by 0.15-0.23 m and 0.20-0.30 m by 2050, respectively. By 2100, GMSL is projected to rise 0.28-0.55 m and 0.63-1.02 m, respectively. Antarctica ice sheet instabilities are significant sources of uncertainty affecting future sea level rise projections. Regional relative sea level rise is an important driving factor affecting extreme still water levels. |
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| Keywords: | Global mean sea level(GMSL) Regional extreme sea level Ice sheet change Marine dynamic processes |
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