| 珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘绿柳,姜彤,原峰.珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(4):209-214. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘绿柳 姜彤 原峰 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京,100081;中国气象局气候变化中心,北京,100081
2. 广东省海洋资源研究发展中心,广州,510220 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果，分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化，并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明，在全球变暖的背景下，过去47 a温度呈上升趋势，约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显，夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势，A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃，并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著，冬季最弱，A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势；春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势，A1B排放情景降水增加最多，约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强，秋季减弱。
|
| 关 键 词： | 气温 降水 气候变化 气候预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-12-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-1-23
|
Observed (1961-2007) and Projected (2011-2060) Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin |
| |
| Liu Lüliu,Jiang Tong,Yuan Feng.Observed (1961-2007) and Projected (2011-2060) Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change,2009,5(4):209-214. |
| |
| Authors: | Liu Lüliu Jiang Tong Yuan Feng |
| |
| Institution: | National Climate Center |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data during 1961-2007 and projection during 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, changing tendencies of temperature and precipitation in the Pearl River basin were analyzed. The results show that the annual average air temperature increased by 1.8 ℃ during the past 47 years, with a maximum increase in winter and a minimum increase in summer. Annual temperature would rise by 1.9 ℃ under the SRES-A1B scenario in the next 50 years (2011-2060); at the same time, inter-annual variability would enhance. Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in autumn and most weakly in winter under the SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 scenarios; however, under the SRES-AIB scenario, the opposite is true. In the past 47 years, except that autumn precipitation decreased, spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation increased. Precipitation would overally increase about 230 mm in 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model under the SRES-AIB scenario. However, the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously. On the other hand, the inter-annual variability of annual and winter precipitation would enhance, but that of autumn precipitation would weaken. |
| |
| Keywords: | temperature precipitation climate change climate projection Pearl River basin |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
