| 全球增暖背景下2050年前长江流域气候趋势预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾小凡,苏布达,姜彤,陈正洪.全球增暖背景下2050年前长江流域气候趋势预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5):293-298. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾小凡 苏布达 姜彤 陈正洪 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院 南京地理与湖泊研究所 中国气象局国家气候中心 中国科学院 南京地理与湖泊研究所 武汉区域气候中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据ECHAM5/ MPI-OM模式对长江流域21世纪前半叶气候变化的预估数据，分析了全流域、上游地区和中下游地区未来气候变化趋势。结果表明，长江流域气温将持续升高，尤其7-8月升温趋势明显，年平均温度升高最大幅度为2.60℃；全流域7月降水将增加，8月降水有减少趋势，未来夏季降水更加集中，不仅会增加洪涝灾害的发生机率，也有可能导致旱灾的发生。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变暖 长江流域 预估 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-1719（2007）05-0293-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-22 |
Projection of Future Climate Change in the Yangtze River Basin for 2001-2050 |
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| Zeng Xiaofan,Su Buda,Jiang Tong,Chen Zhenghong.Projection of Future Climate Change in the Yangtze River Basin for 2001-2050[J].Advances in Climate Change,2007,3(5):293-298. |
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| Authors: | Zeng Xiaofan Su Buda Jiang Tong Chen Zhenghong |
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| Institution: | 1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; 4 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 5 Wuhan Regional Climate Centre, Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | The possible climate changes for three emission scenarios (SRES A2,A1B,B1) were projected by ECHAM5/ MPI-OM. Based on the projected data,possible temperature and precipitation changes during 2001-2050 in the Yangtze River basin were analyzed. The results show that,temperature would rise mostly in July and August for the whole basin,and precipitation in July would have an increasing tendency while a decreasing tendency in August. Based on the results,temporal distribution of summer precipitation would be more concentrated,which maybe aggravate both flood and drought disasters in the future. |
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| Keywords: | climate warming the Yangtze River basin projection |
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