| THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND OBSERVED OCEANIC DATA ON THE ABILITY OF T_(213)L_(31) TO PREDICT TC TRACK |
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| 作者姓名： | 麻素红 王建捷 万丰 |
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| 作者单位： | MA Su-hong（National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081 China） ;
WANG Jian-jie（Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081 China） ;
WAN Feng（Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081 China） ; |
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| 摘 要： | The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large.The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area.The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field.
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| 关 键 词： | 数据同化 热带气象 台风 海洋气候 |
THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND OBSERVED OCEANIC DATA ON THE ABILITY OF T213L31 TO PREDICT TC TRACK |
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| MA Su-hong,WANG Jian-jie,WAN Feng.THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND OBSERVED OCEANIC DATA ON THE ABILITY OF T_(213)L_(31) TO PREDICT TC TRACK[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2007,13(2):149-152. |
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| Authors: | MA Su-hong WANG Jian-jie WAN Feng |
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| Institution: | 1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081 China
2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081 China |
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| Abstract: | The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large.The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area.The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field. |
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| Keywords: | T213L31 Model TC tracks observation data data assimilation |
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