| THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL |
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| 作者姓名： | 岳彩军 陆维松 李清泉 |
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| 作者单位： | Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA |
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| 基金项目： | Natural Science Foundation of China (40275016); Science and Technology Development
Project for the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (0301) |
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| 摘 要： | With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between
NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is
analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with
NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.
The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of
FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA
than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s
as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.
Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on
the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution
characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA
forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better
predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast
ability of the coupled model.
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| 关 键 词： | Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model initialization impact wind prediction ability effect |
THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL |
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| YUE Cai-jun,LU Wei-song and LI Qing-quan.THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,12(1):67-75. |
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| Authors: | YUE Cai-jun LU Wei-song and LI Qing-quan |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 China |
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| Abstract: | With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between
NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is
analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with
NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.
The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of
FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA
than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s
as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.
Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on
the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution
characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA
forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better
predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast
ability of the coupled model. |
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| Keywords: | Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model initialization impact wind prediction ability effect |
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