A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts |
| |
| Authors: | ZHAO Bin ZHANG Bo and LI Zi-liang |
| |
| Institution: | 1. National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 China; 2. Numerical
Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 China; 3. Chengdu University of
Information Technology, Chengdu 610225 China; 4. Heihe Weather Office of Heilongjiang Province, Heihe, Heilongjiang 164300 China |
| |
| Abstract: | Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy(neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i. e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score(SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency,which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used. |
| |
| Keywords: | ECMWF ensemble forecasts Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS) traditional skill score consistent assessment OPERA quantitative precipitation estimation datasets |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
