| OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF RAINFALL INDUCED BY LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ALONG GUANGDONG COAST |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晴岚 刘炳荣 万齐林 王玉清 李广鑫 李铁键 兰红平 冯圣中 刘春霞 |
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| 摘 要： | Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province, China. All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity. The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed. The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days' accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time) from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots. These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future. The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area. The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes. Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China.
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| 关 键 词： | tropical cyclone coastal area rainfall forecast statistical boxplot scheme coupled boxplot scheme |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-28 |
OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF RAINFALL INDUCED BY LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ALONG GUANGDONG COAST |
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| LI Qing-lan,LIU Bing-rong,WAN Qi-lin,WANG Yu-qing,LI Guang-xin,LI Tie-jian,LAN Hong-ping,FENG Sheng-zhong and LIU Chun-xia.OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF RAINFALL INDUCED BY LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ALONG GUANGDONG COAST[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2020,26(1):1-13. |
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| Authors: | LI Qing-lan LIU Bing-rong WAN Qi-lin WANG Yu-qing LI Guang-xin LI Tie-jian LAN Hong-ping FENG Sheng-zhong and LIU Chun-xia |
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| Institution: | 1. Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055 China; 2. Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080 China; 3. University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 China; 5. Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518040 China |
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| Abstract: | Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province, China. All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity. The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed. The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days' accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time) from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots. These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future. The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area. The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes. Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone coastal area rainfall forecast statistical boxplot scheme coupled boxplot scheme |
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