SAMPLE OPTIMIZATION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST TO SIMULATE TROPICAL STORMS (MERBOK, MAWAR, AND GUCHOL) USING THE OBSERVED TRACK |
| |
Authors: | LI Ji-hang GAO Yu-dong WAN Qi-lin and ZHANG Xu-bin |
| |
Institution: | Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510641 China |
| |
Abstract: | Nowadays, ensemble forecasting is popular in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, an ensemble may not produce a perfect Gaussian probability distribution owing to limited members and the fact that some members significantly deviate from the true atmospheric state. Therefore, event samples with small probabilities may downgrade the accuracy of an ensemble forecast. In this study, the evolution of tropical storms (weak typhoon) was investigated and an observed tropical storm track was used to limit the probability distribution of samples. The ensemble forecast method used pure observation data instead of assimilated data. In addition, the prediction results for three tropical storm systems, Merbok, Mawar, and Guchol, showed that track and intensity errors could be reduced through sample optimization. In the research, the vertical structures of these tropical storms were compared, and the existence of different thermal structures was discovered. One possible reason for structural differences is sample optimization, and it may affect storm intensity and track. |
| |
Keywords: | ensemble forecast sample optimization tropical storm observed track |
本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录! |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|