| THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL |
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| 引用本文： | 周霞琼,端义宏,朱永禔.THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL[J].热带气象学报(英文版),2003,9(1):41-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周霞琼 端义宏 朱永禔 |
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| 作者单位： | Shanghai Typhoon Institute，Shanghai Typhoon Institute，Shanghai Typhoon Institute |
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| 基金项目： | Natural Science Foundation of China (40005003) |
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| 摘 要： | 1INTRODUCTIONErrorsofnumericalforecastingcomprisethoseintheinitialvalue,modelandcomputationandthefirstkindoferrorbecomesmoreandmoreoutstandingwiththeon-goingdevelopmentofcomputersandnumericalmodels.Subjecttoavailableobservationmeans,therealatmosphereisanythingbutapproximatelymeasured.Meanwhile,oneshouldpayattentiontothepossibility,assuggestedbyLorenz1],thatanyslightdifferencesduringtheinitialstatemayleadtoresultsthatturnouttobetotallydissimilarfromwhatwouldbeexpectedotherwise,asfarasdefi…
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气象 热带气旋 统计预报 天气预报 数值预报 |
THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I:USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL |
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| ZHOU Xia-qiong,DUAN Yi-hong and ZHU Yong-ti.THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I:USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2003,9(1):41-48. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Xia-qiong DUAN Yi-hong and ZHU Yong-ti |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, 200030 China |
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| Abstract: | Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly. The skill of 60 % 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steering current is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone motion ensemble forecast typhoon numerical forecast |
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