| DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷小途 汤杰 许晓林 占瑞芬 于润玲 黄荣成 吴联要 |
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| 作者单位： | Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China |
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| 基金项目： | Natural Fundamental Research and Development Project “973” Program (2009CB421504); Natural Science Foundation of China (40730948,40921160381, 40905029); special scientific fund for non-profit public industry (GYHY201006008) |
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| 摘 要： | Intensity variation of tropical cyclones(TCs),especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs,is of great concern in current research.Most of the research papers,however,focus on intensification processes of TCs;only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a TC.In the daily weather operation related to TCs,it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly,because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs does.Overestimation of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in"crying wolf"mentality with adverse effects.This study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors:reduced level of air temperature,too large or too small speed,contraction of TC size amplification of TC’s core,and lightning number in a TC.
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| 关 键 词： | tropical cyclone offshore intensity decay |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/9/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/2/15 0:00:00 |
DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC |
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| LEI Xiao-tu,TANG Jie,XU Xiao-lin,ZHAN Rui-fen,YU Run-ling,HUANG Rong-cheng and WU Lian-yao.DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2012,18(2):127-134. |
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| Authors: | LEI Xiao-tu TANG Jie XU Xiao-lin ZHAN Rui-fen YU Run-ling HUANG Rong-cheng and WU Lian-yao |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China |
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| Abstract: | Intensity variation of tropical cyclones(TCs),especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs,is of great concern in current research.Most of the research papers,however,focus on intensification processes of TCs;only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a TC.In the daily weather operation related to TCs,it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly,because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs does.Overestimation of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in"crying wolf"mentality with adverse effects.This study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors:reduced level of air temperature,too large or too small speed,contraction of TC size amplification of TC’s core,and lightning number in a TC. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone offshore intensity decay |
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