| A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟元 潘劲松 朱红 陈卫锋 陈世春 梁明珠 |
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| 作者单位： | Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute, Hangzhou 310017, China;Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017, China; 3. Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china |
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| 基金项目： | Specialized Research Project for Social Welfare from Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2005DIB3J104); Science and Technology Planning Project for Zhejiang Province (2007C23065) |
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| 摘 要： | A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites.Using the initial parameters,weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products,the scheme constructs multivariate,objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast.Through defining a non-linear similarity index,this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples.The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall.Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria.Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill.
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| 关 键 词： | weather forecast forecasting methods typhoon storm precipitation site-specific and quantitative forecast similarity |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/12/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/7/15 0:00:00 |
A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS |
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| ZHONG Yuan,PAN Jin-song,ZHU Hong,CHEN Wei-feng,CHEN Shi-chun and LIANG Ming-zhu.A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2012,18(3):322-331. |
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| Authors: | ZHONG Yuan PAN Jin-song ZHU Hong CHEN Wei-feng CHEN Shi-chun and LIANG Ming-zhu |
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| Institution: | Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute, Hangzhou 310017, China;Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017, China;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china;Huzhou Meteorological bureau, Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, china |
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| Abstract: | A quantitative scheme is put forward in our work of forecasting the storm rainfall of typhoons for specific sites. Using the initial parameters, weather situations and physical quantities as well as numerical weather prediction products, the scheme constructs multivariate, objective and similarity criteria for environmental factors for the time between the current and forthcoming moment within the domain of forecast. Through defining a non-linear similarity index, this work presents a comprehensive assessment of the similarity between historical samples of typhoons and those being forecast in terms of continuous dynamic states under the multivariate criteria in order to identify similar samples. The historical rainfall records of the similar samples are used to run weighted summarization of the similarity index to determine site-specific and quantitative forecasts of future typhoon rainfall. Samples resembling the typhoon being forecast are selected by defining a non-linear similarity index composed of multiple criteria. Trial tests have demonstrated that this scheme has positive prediction skill. |
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| Keywords: | weather forecast forecasting methods typhoon storm precipitation site-specific and quantitative forecast similarity |
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