A STATISTICAL PREDICTION MODEL FOR SPRING RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CHINA BASED ON THE INTERANNUAL INCREMENT APPROACH |
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| Authors: | FAN Ke |
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| Institution: | Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre/Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 China |
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| Abstract: | The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC. |
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| Keywords: | spring rainfall over northern China statistical prediction model interannual increment approach |
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