| 2018年内蒙古河套地区一次强降水过程分析及动力因子释用 |
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| 引用本文： | 柳志慧,李瑞青.2018年内蒙古河套地区一次强降水过程分析及动力因子释用[J].内蒙古气象,2020(2):3-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 柳志慧 李瑞青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.内蒙古气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2018BS04001)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对2018年7月18-19日内蒙古河套地区的强降水过程,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和集合动力因子预报系统中的12个动力因子进行分析和预报研究。结果表明:(1)在本次降水过程中,西太平洋副热带高压强,呈块状分布,稳定少动,伴随高空低槽的缓慢东南压,使得低空急流不断加强,并配合高、低空急流的相互作用、辐合切变线的北上及河套地区多山区、水域等复杂下垫面的地形条件,为本次降水提供了水汽通道畅通、水汽汇聚、动力抬升强、不稳定能量、持续时间长等有利条件,造成强降水;(2)动力因子在明显降水区表现为强信号,在弱降水区和非降水区表现为弱信号,其在明显降水区的空间平均值为弱降水区和非降水区的2倍以上;(3)动力因子预报降水与实况降水存在较好的相关性,空间相关系数集中在0.4~0.7之间。对于10.0~24.9 mm降水,平均ETS评分为0.37;对于25.0~49.9 mm降水,平均ETS评分为0.28;对于50.0 mm及以上降水,平均ETS评分为0.17。总体而言,各动力因子对区域性降水的落区和强度把握均较好,具备一定的诊断和预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 河套地区 强降水 成因分析 动力因子 解释应用 |
The Causation Analysis and Interpretation Application of Dynamical-Parameters of a Heavy Rainfall Process in Inner Mongolia Hetao Area in 2018 |
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| Authors: | Liu Zhihui Li Ruiqing |
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| Institution: | (Inner Mongolia Meteorological Observatory,Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010051) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and 12 dynamical-parameters in the EDFF,the causation analysis and forecasting study of a heavy rainfall process in Inner Mongolia Hetao area in 2018 were carried out.The results showed that:(1)the subtropical high over the western Pacific was strong,massive,stable and less movement.With the slow southeast moving of the low trough,the low jet stream is strengthened,which combined with the interaction of high and low level jet,the northward movement of convergence shear line,and the complex underlying surface in Hetao area and so on.They provided favorable conditions for this precipitation,such as free passage of water vapor,the convergence of water vapor,strong dynamic lift,more unstable energy and long duration,caused the heavy rainfall.(2)The dynamic-parameters showed strong signal in the obvious precipitation area,weak signal in the weak precipitation and non-precipitation area.And its spatial average value in the obvious precipitation area is more than twice that in the weak precipitation and non-precipitation area.(3)There was a good correlation between the predicted precipitation by dynamic-parameters and the actual precipitation,and the spatial correlation coefficient concentrates between 0.4 and 0.7.For precipitation between10.0~24.9 mm,the average ETS score is 0.37;for precipitation between 25.0~49.9mm,the average ETS score is 0.28;for precipitation above 50.0 mm,the average ETS score is 0.17.Overall all dynamic-parameters had better control of rainfall area and intensity,so they had certain diagnostic and forecast ability. |
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| Keywords: | Hetao area Heavy rainfall Causation analysis Dynamical-Parameters Interpretation application |
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