首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

大兴安岭森林松毛虫发生的气象条件相关分析
引用本文:赵可新,乌秋力,乔文斌,李银枝,张树文.大兴安岭森林松毛虫发生的气象条件相关分析[J].内蒙古气象,2010(6):31-33.
作者姓名:赵可新  乌秋力  乔文斌  李银枝  张树文
作者单位:呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古海拉尔021008
摘    要:利用鄂伦春旗3个林业局森林松毛虫和阿里河气象站5个历史气象要素资料,结合统计分析理论和松毛虫发生发展理论,整理和分析出森林松毛虫与气象要素变化的相关关系。筛选出影响松毛虫发生面积的5个气象因子,并分别对其做相关分析。结果表明:与松毛虫发生面积密切相关的因子主要有年降水量、年平均气温和年积温(≥10℃),松毛虫发生面积同3因子的相关系数分别为-0.6672、0.6445和0.6078。选择这3个因子利用多元回归建立松毛虫发生面积预测方程,通过试用此预报模式可以为林业部门的防虫、灭虫提供有效指导。

关 键 词:气象因子  松毛虫发生面积  相关分析  预测预报

The Correlative Analysis on Meteorological Conditions of The Wood Pinecaterpillar Occurrence in Da Hinggan Mountains
Authors:Zhao Kexin  Wu Qiuli  Qiao Wenbin  Li Yinzhi  Bai Zhikang
Institution:Zhao Kexin,Wu Qiuli,Qiao Wenbin,Li Yinzhi,Bai Zhikang(The Hulunbeier Meteorologic Bureau,Inner Mongolia Hulunbeier 021008)
Abstract:Apply to the wood pinecaterpillar data of three forestry bureau in Elunchun banner and five historical meteorological elements in Alihe station,combined with the statistic analysis theory and occurrence and development law of the wood pinecaterpillar,the correlative relation is sorted and analysed between the wood pinecaterpillar and meteorological elements.Five meteorological factors are filtered and correlative analyzed separately influencing on the pinecaterpillar occurance areas.The results show that in the case of area is closely related to the key factors for annual precipitation,mean annual temperatures and annual accumulated temperature(≥10℃),the correlation coefficient is respectively-0.6672,0.6445 and 0.6078 with pinecaterpillar occurance areas.Choosing this three factors,using multiple regession theory,the prediction equations are established about the pinecaterpillar occurance areas.
Keywords:Meteorological factors  The pinecaterpillar occurance areas  Correlative aalysis  Forecast and prediction
本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号