The special climate change fund: origins and prioritisation assessment |
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| Authors: | Valentina Bosetti Marzio Galeotti Alessandro Lanza |
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| Institution: | 1. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) , Corso Magenta 63, 20123, Milan, Italy;2. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) , Corso Magenta 63, 20123, Milan, Italy;3. University of Milan , Italy;4. CreNos , Italy |
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| Abstract: | Abstract A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters. |
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| Keywords: | Climate policy Long-term climate targets Integrated assessment modelling |
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