Boreal forest responses to climate-change scenarios along an ecoclimatic transect in central Canada |
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| Authors: | David T Price Michael J Apps |
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| Institution: | (1) Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, T6H 3S5 Edmonton, Alberta, Canada |
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| Abstract: | The FORSKA2 patch model was used to simulate responses of forest biomass and species composition to four GCM projections of climate change at 11 locations along a transect oriented northeast-southwest across the boreal zone of central Canada. In agreement with earlier results, FORSKA2 produced estimates of present-day biomass accumulation and functional types very consistent with local inventory data. Simulated responses to the four GCM scenarios of climate change produced different results. The GFDL scenario consistently reduced total biomass accumulation compared to present-day conditions, whereas the other three GCMs produced overall increases. In the north, where ecosystem productivity is thought to be limited by low temperature, changes in steady-state biomass accumulation and species composition were relatively minor. In the south, where productivity is probably limited by summer water deficits, the GCM scenarios resulted in larger absolute changes, with generally large increases under GISS, and OSU and generally smaller increases under UKMO. Pronounced changes in species composition were not evident in most simulations, with the exception that warmer winter temperatures evidently allowed invasion by species currently excluded through intolerance to winter minima. |
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