Potential impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping in Tunisia |
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| Authors: | J P Lhomme R Mougou M Mansour |
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| Institution: | (1) Agriculture and Environmental Science Division, School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, NG7 2RD Nottingham, UK;(2) Macaulay Institute, Craigiebuckler, AB15 8QH Aberdeen, Scotland, UK;(3) Agrichiana Farming, Via di Sciarti 33/A, 53040 Montepulciano, Italy |
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| Abstract: | The potential effect of climate change on durum wheat in Tunisia is assessed using a simple crop simulation model and a climate
projection for the 2071–2100 period, obtained from the Météo-France ARPEGE-Climate atmospheric model run under the IPCC (International
Panel on Climate Change) scenario A1B. In the process-oriented crop model, phenology is estimated through thermal time. Water
balance is calculated on a daily basis by means of a simple modelling of actual evapotranspiration involving reference evapotranspiration,
crop coefficients and some basic soil characteristics. The impact of crop water deficit on yield is accounted for through
the linear crop-water production function developed by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Two stations are chosen to study the climate change effect. They are representative of the main areas where cereals are grown
in Tunisia: Jendouba in the northern region and Kairouan in the central region. In the future scenario, temperature systematically
increases, whereas precipitation increases or decreases depending on the location and the period of the year. Mean annual
precipitation declines in Jendouba and raises in Kairouan. Under climate change, the water conditions needed for sowing occur
earlier and cycle lengths are reduced in both locations. Crop water deficit and the corresponding deficit in crop yield happen
to be slightly lower in Kairouan; conversely, they become higher in Jendouba. |
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