Projected climate change impact on Baltic Sea cyanobacteria |
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| Authors: | Inga Hense H E Markus Meier Sebastian Sonntag |
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| Institution: | 1. IHF, KlimaCampus, CEN, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
2. SMHI, Norrk?ping, Sweden
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| Abstract: | Compared to other phytoplankton groups, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria generally prefer high water temperatures for growth and are therefore expected to benefit from global warming. We use a coupled biological-physical model with an advanced cyanobacteria life cycle model to compare the abundance of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea during two different time periods (1969–1998; 2069–2098). For the latter, we find prolonged growth and a more than twofold increase in the climatologically (30 years) averaged cyanobacteria biomass and nitrogen fixation. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the biological-physical feedback mechanism through light absorption becomes more important with global warming. In general, we find a nonlinear response of cyanobacteria to changes in the atmospheric forcing fields as a result of life-cycle related feedback mechanisms. Overall, the sensitivity of the cyanobacteria-driven system suggests that biological-physical and life-cycle related feedback mechanisms are important and must therefore be included in future projection studies. |
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