Recent climatic change in Australia: Implications for a CO2-warmed earth |
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| Authors: | A B Pittock |
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| Institution: | (1) Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Private Bag 1, 3195 Mordialloc, Victoria, Australia |
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| Abstract: | A significant change in mean precipitation occurred over much of Australia between 1913–45 and 1946–78. This is described
on a seasonal basis and related to possible changes in the atmospheric circulation. It now appears that during this time mean
surface temperatures in the mid southern latitude zone increased by up to 1 °C. This temperature change could be at least
partly due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations from about 260 ppmv in the early nineteenth century. In any case the observed temperature increase is similar
to the predicted future effects of a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Thus the climatic change which occurred earlier this century is at least a good analogy for the effects of
a CO2-induced global warming which is expected to occur over a similar time interval in the future. This allows the construction
of more detailed and quantitative climate scenarios. The most noteworthy conclusion is that marked changes in the seasonally
of precipitation should be anticipated, with seasonal changes in some areas being of the order of 50% or more for a doubling
of CO2 content. The results are in general consistent with earlier more qualitative scenarios for Australia. |
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