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Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific |
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| Authors: | Jaclyn N Brown Alex Sen Gupta Josephine R Brown Les C Muir James S Risbey Penny Whetton Xuebin Zhang Alexandre Ganachaud Brad Murphy Susan E Wijffels |
| Institution: | 1. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO, Hobart, Australia 2. Climate Change Research Centre & ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia 3. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 4. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, USA 5. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR5566, LEGOS, BP A5, Nouméa, New Caledonia 6. UPS (OMP-PCA), LEGOS, 14 Av, Edouard Belin, F-31400, Toulouse, France |
| Abstract: | Regional climate projections in the Pacific region are potentially sensitive to a range of existing model biases. This study examines the implications of coupled model biases on regional climate projections in the tropical western Pacific. Model biases appear in the simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the location and movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, rainfall patterns, and the mean state of the ocean–atmosphere system including the cold tongue bias and erroneous location of the edge of the Western Pacific warm pool. These biases are examined in the CMIP3 20th century climate models and used to provide some context to the uncertainty in interpretations of regional-scale climate projections for the 21st century. To demonstrate, we provide examples for two island nations that are located in different climate zones and so are affected by different biases: Nauru and Palau. We discuss some of the common approaches to analyze climate projections and whether they are effective in reducing the effect of model biases. These approaches include model selection, calculating multi model means, downscaling and bias correcting. |
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