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Vulnerability to epidemic malaria in the highlands of Lake Victoria basin: the role of climate change/variability, hydrology and socio-economic factors |
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| Authors: | Shem O Wandiga Maggie Opondo Daniel Olago Andrew Githeko Faith Githui Michael Marshall Tim Downs Alfred Opere Christopher Oludhe Gilbert O Ouma Pius Z Yanda Richard Kangalawe Robert Kabumbuli James Kathuri Eugene Apindi Lydia Olaka Laban Ogallo Paul Mugambi Rehema Sigalla Robinah Nanyunja Timothy Baguma Pius Achola |
| Institution: | 1. Kenya National Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 39450, Nairobi, Kenya 2. Department of Geography, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, Nairobi, Kenya 3. Department of Geology, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, Nairobi, Kenya 4. Climate and Human Health Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute, P.O. Box 1578, Kisumu, Kenya 5. Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, Nairobi, Kenya 6. International Development, Community, and Environment Department, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA, 01610-1477, USA 7. Instituted of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35097, Dar-es Salaam, Tanzania 8. Department of Sociology, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 9. Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 10. P.O. Box 44368-00100, Nairobi, Kenya |
| Abstract: | Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria. |
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