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Extreme rainfalls in SE South America |
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| Authors: | Mariano Re Vicente Ricardo Barros |
| Institution: | 1. Computational Hydraulics Program, Hydraulics Laboratory, National Institute for Water (INA), Ezeiza-Ca?uelas Highway, J. Newbery Section, km 1,620, 1804, Ezeiza, Argentina 2. Mathematical Modeling Laboratory, School of Engineering, University of Buenos Aires, Av. Las Heras 2214, 1127, Buenos Aires, Argentina 3. Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II, 2° piso, 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina 4. Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research (CIMA, UBA/CONICET), Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II, 2° piso, 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina |
| Abstract: | Heavy rainfall trends in a region of south-eastern South America during 1959–2002 were discussed using daily data of 52 meteorological stations of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Changes in intensity and frequency were both studied with different statistical tests and approaches to check the significance of trends of single and regional aggregated rainfall series. There were predominant positive trends in the annual maximum rainfalls, as well as a remarkable increment in the frequency of heavy rainfalls over thresholds ranging from 50 to 150 mm. However, significant positive trends were not shown in the series of annual maximums and shown only in 15% to 30% of the series of frequencies over thresholds. This lack of significance is due to the high variability of heavy rainfalls in space and time, which makes difficult their capture by single rain gauges. Thus, when the assessment of the heavy rainfall indicators of intensity and frequency were conducted at the regional and sub-regional level, it showed significant trends, both in intensity and frequency over thresholds, with a clearer signal in central and eastern Argentina between 30° and 40° S. |
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