Joint variable spatial downscaling |
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| Authors: | Feng Zhang Aris P Georgakakos |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 790 Atlantic Drive, Atlanta, GA, 30332-0355, USA
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| Abstract: | Joint Variable Spatial Downscaling (JVSD), a new statistical technique for downscaling gridded climatic variables, is developed to generate high resolution gridded datasets for regional watershed modeling and assessments. The proposed approach differs from previous statistical downscaling methods in that multiple climatic variables are downscaled simultaneously and consistently to produce realistic climate projections. In the bias correction step, JVSD uses a differencing process to create stationary joint cumulative frequency statistics of the variables being downscaled. The functional relationship between these statistics and those of the historical observation period is subsequently used to remove GCM bias. The original variables are recovered through summation of bias corrected differenced sequences. In the spatial disaggregation step, JVSD uses a historical analogue approach, with historical analogues identified simultaneously for all atmospheric fields and over all areas of the basin under study. Analysis and comparisons are performed for 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M), broadly available for most GCMs. The results show that the proposed downscaling method is able to reproduce the sub-grid climatic features as well as their temporal/spatial variability in the historical periods. Comparisons are also performed for precipitation and temperature with other statistical and dynamic downscaling methods over the southeastern US and show that JVSD performs favorably. The downscaled sequences are used to assess the implications of GCM scenarios for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basin as part of a comprehensive climate change impact assessment. |
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