Future Area Burned in Canada |
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| Authors: | M D Flannigan K A Logan B D Amiro W R Skinner B J Stocks |
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| Institution: | (1) Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, Canada, P6A 2E5;(2) Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, T6H 3S5;(3) Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada, M3H 5T4 |
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| Abstract: | Historical relationships between weather, the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system components and area burned in Canadian
ecozones were analysed on a monthly basis in tandem with output from the Canadian and the Hadley Centre GCMs to project future
area burned. Temperature and fuel moisture were the variables best related to historical monthly area burned with 36–64% of
the variance explained depending on ecozone. Our results suggest significant increases in future area burned although there
are large regional variations in fire activity. This was especially true for the Canadian GCM where some ecozones show little
change in area burned, however area burned was not projected to decrease in any of the ecozones modelled. On average, area
burned in Canada is projected to increase by 74–118% by the end of this century in a 3 × CO2 scenario. These estimates do not explicitly take into account any changes in vegetation, ignitions, fire season length, and
human activity (fire management and land use activities) that may influence area burned. However, the estimated increases
in area burned would have significant ecological, economic and social impacts for Canada. |
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