Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change |
| |
| Authors: | J Sillmann E Roeckner |
| |
| Institution: | (1) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany |
| |
| Abstract: | Indices for temperature and precipitation extremes are calculated on the basis of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations
of the twentieth century and SRES A1B and B1 emission scenarios for the twenty-first century. For model evaluation, the simulated
indices representing the present climate were compared with indices based on observational data. This comparison shows that
the model is able to realistically capture the observed climatological large-scale patterns of temperature and precipitation
indices, although the quality of the simulations depends on the index and region under consideration. In the climate projections
for the twenty-first century, all considered temperature-based indices, minimum Tmin, maximum Tmax, and the frequency of tropical
nights, show a significant increase worldwide. Similarly, extreme precipitation, as represented by the maximum 5-day precipitation
and the 95th percentile of precipitation, is projected to increase significantly in most regions of the world, especially
in those that are relatively wet already under present climate conditions. Analogously, dry spells increase particularly in
those regions that are characterized by dry conditions in present-day climate. Future changes in the indices exhibit distinct
regional and seasonal patterns as identified exemplarily in three European regions. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
