Sensitivity of crop yields and land resource potential to climatic change in Ontario,Canada |
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| Authors: | Barry Smit Michael Brklacich Robert B Stewart Ray McBride Murray Brown Deborah Bond |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geography and Land Evaluation Group (LEG), University of Guelph, N1G 2W1 Guelph, Ontario, Canada;(2) Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, N2L 3G1, and LEG Waterloo, Ontario, Canada;(3) Agriculture Development Branch, Agriculture Canada, K1A OC5 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;(4) Department of Land Resource Science and LEG, University of Guelph, N1G 2W1 Guelph, Ontario, Canada;(5) Department of Geography and Land Evaluation Group (LEG), University of Guelph, NIG 2W1 Guelph, Ontario, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases are expected to contribute to a global warming. This paper examines the potential implications of a climatic change corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 on crop production opportunities throughout Ontario, a major food producing region in Canada. The climate is projected to become warmer and drier, but the extent of these shifts are expected to vary from region to region within Ontario. The effect of this altered climate on crop yields and the area of land capable of supporting specific crops varies according to region, soil quality and crop type. Most notable are the enhanced opportunities for grains and oilseeds in the northern regions, and the diminished production prospects for most crops in the most southerly parts of Ontario. |
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