Competitiveness of terrestrial greenhouse gas offsets: are they a bridge to the future? |
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Authors: | Bruce A McCarl Ronald D Sands |
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Institution: | (1) Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2124, USA;(2) Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740, USA |
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Abstract: | Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize
currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological
development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to
go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation
of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting
the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options
including CO2 capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO2 prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future,
initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role
in later years. At higher CO2 prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in
the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and
biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions. |
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