| 近10年上海盛夏高温及热岛强度变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 漆梁波.近10年上海盛夏高温及热岛强度变化趋势[J].气象科技,2004,32(6):433-437. |
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| 作者姓名： | 漆梁波 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海中心气象台,上海,200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 对上海地区11个观测站的近10年的7月最高气温观测资料进行分析发现：(1)2003年7月，上海城区和郊区的最高气温均突破过去30年的极值，但2003年的热岛效应强度却并不是近30年来最高的一年；(2)过去10年的观测资料表明，郊区平均最高气温变化不大，上海城区的平均最高气温则呈明显的上升趋势，这表明城区环境变化所导致的热岛效应是城区气温逐年升高的主要原因；(3)热岛效应强度年际变化存在猛增阶段和平稳升高的阶段，这种变化主要由人为因素所致，平稳增加的阶段热岛效应强度的波动与区域气温的波动呈正相关；(4)未来几年，上海的热岛效应强度仍将缓慢增加，但上海市政府合理的城市发展规划可使这一增加趋势减缓，最终达到一个平稳的强度。
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| 关 键 词： | 最高气温 观测资料 年际变化 上升趋势 热岛效应 盛夏 环境变化 上海 增加 郊区 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月29日 |
Trend Analysis of Midsummer High Temperature and Urban Heat Island Effect in Shanghai over Past 10 Years |
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| Qi Liangbo.Trend Analysis of Midsummer High Temperature and Urban Heat Island Effect in Shanghai over Past 10 Years[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2004,32(6):433-437. |
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| Authors: | Qi Liangbo |
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| Abstract: | After carefully analyzing of high temperature in July from 11 stations in Shanghai in the past 10 years, it is founded: (1) July 2003 is the hottest in recent 30 years with the maximum temperatures breaking the 30-years record both in urban and rural areas but the Intensity of Heat Island Effect (IHIE) was not the highest compared with the records of the past 30 years. (2) The suburban average maximum temperature changed slightly in the past 10 years while the average maximum temperature in the urban area went up distinctly. It indicates that the heat island effect resulted from environment exchanges is the main cause of the recent urban temperature increase. (3) The inter-annual variation of IHIE has a rapid period and a smooth period, which was caused by various human activities. The change of IHIE has a positive correlation with the regional temperature fluctuation. (4) IHIE in Shanghai will still increase slowly in the coming years, but if the Shanghai Municipal Government has a reasonable city development plan, the temperature increase will be slow down gradually, and IHIE in Shanghai will become stable finally. |
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| Keywords: | high temperature heat island effect trend analysis |
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