| 气候变暖对广西双季稻安全生产期的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄维,吴炫柯,刘梅,何燕,刘永裕.气候变暖对广西双季稻安全生产期的影响[J].气象科技,2021,49(6):975-982. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄维 吴炫柯 刘梅 何燕 刘永裕 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西柳州市农业气象试验站，柳州 545003;广西气象科学研究所，南宁 530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科技重点研发计划项目（桂科 AB171195037）、广西自然科学基金面上项目（2020GXNSFAA159028）、中国气象局创新发展专项项目“农业气象试验站区域联合试验”（CXFZ2021Z059）、柳州市气象局气象科研计划项目（柳气科202004）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1960—2019年广西88个国家气象观测站逐日气温资料，将研究时段分成前30年（P1：1960—1989年）和后30年（P2：1990—2019年）2个阶段，分析早稻安全播种期和安全移栽期、晚稻安全齐穗期和安全成熟期的年际变化规律，并通过比较P1和P2阶段不同保证率下各安全生产期的差异，分析气候变暖背景下广西双季稻安全生产期的变化特征。结果表明：①早稻安全播种期和安全移栽期主要表现为提前变化趋势,晚稻安全齐穗期和安全成熟期主要表现为推迟变化趋势，全区80%和90%保证率安全播种期和安全移栽期平均提前2 d，80%和90%保证率安全齐穗期平均推迟2 d，80%和90%保证率安全成熟期平均推迟5 d和6 d。②安全生产期的变化特征空间差异性较大，桂东北安全播种期和安全移栽期提前天数最多,达6 d以上，百色那坡、靖西地区安全齐穗期推迟天数最多，达6 d以上，全区大部分地区安全成熟期推迟天数在6～10 d，空间差异相对较小。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变暖 安全生产期 广西 水稻 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/3/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/6/9 0:00:00 |
Impacts of Climate Warming on Safe Production Dates of Double Cropping Rice in Guangxi |
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| HUANG Wei,WU Xuanke,LIU Mei,HE Yan,LIU Yongyu.Impacts of Climate Warming on Safe Production Dates of Double Cropping Rice in Guangxi[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2021,49(6):975-982. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Wei WU Xuanke LIU Mei HE Yan LIU Yongyu |
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| Institution: | Liuzhou Agrometeorological Experimental Station, Guangxi, Liuzhou 545003;Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanning 530022 |
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| Abstract: | Daily temperature of 88 national meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1960 to 2019 are utilized in the research. The study period is divided into two stages: the first 30 years (P1: 1960-1989) and the last 30 years (P2: 1990-2019). The annual variation of the safe sowing date and safe transplanting date of early rice, safe full heading date and safe maturity date of late rice is analyzed. Differences in safe production dates under different guarantee rates in P1 and P2 stages are compared. The aim is to analyze the impact of climate warming on the safe production dates of double cropping rice in Guangxi. The results show that: (1) The safe sowing date and safe transplanting date of early rice showed a trend ahead of time. The safe full heading date and safe maturity date of late rice showed a trend of delay. The safe sowing date and safe transplanting dates of 80% and 90% guarantee rates were advanced by two days on average. The safe full heading dates of 80% and 90% guarantee rates were delayed by two days on average. On average, the safe maturity dates of 80% and 90% guarantee rates were delayed by five days and six days separately. (2) The results show that the spatial differences of variation characteristics of safe production dates were significant. The safe sowing date and safe transplanting date advanced by more days (above six days) in the northeast of Guangxi. The safe full heading date was delayed by more days (above six days) in Napo and Jingxi of Baise. The delay days of the safe maturity date were six to ten days in most areas of Guangxi, and the spatial differences were relatively small. |
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| Keywords: | climate warming safe production date Guangxi rice |
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