| 大气污染物非线性回归模型构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 廖代强,吴遥,柴闯闯.大气污染物非线性回归模型构建[J].气象科技,2020,48(6):871-876. |
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| 作者姓名： | 廖代强 吴遥 柴闯闯 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147;重庆舍特气象应用研究所,重庆 401147 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市自然科学基金面上项目（cstc2019jcyj msxmX0596）“未来11～30天重庆市污染气象条件预报技术研究”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于重庆主城区（沙坪坝站）2014—2018年逐日同期同步观测的气象要素和环境空气质量监测数据进行分析。首先通过对不同大气污染物与各种气象要素进行相关性分析，剔除影响预报模型共性的气象因子，明确显著影响空气质量的气象要素；然后结合污染物排放、大气扩散过程和湿沉降作用机理；最后构建乘幂与线性叠加的混合模式的空气质量预报方程。结果表明：构建的非线性回归方程能较为真实地反映主要大气污染物与气象要素的相互影响关系，回归模型预报检验准确率高（预报评分达87.6）。
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| 关 键 词： | 空气质量 气象要素 非线性回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/12/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/6/22 0:00:00 |
Construction of Nonlinear Regression Model Based on Relationship between Air Pollutants and Meteorological Elements |
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| LIAO Daiqiang,WU Yao,CHAI Chuangchuang.Construction of Nonlinear Regression Model Based on Relationship between Air Pollutants and Meteorological Elements[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2020,48(6):871-876. |
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| Authors: | LIAO Daiqiang WU Yao CHAI Chuangchuang |
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| Institution: | Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147; Chongqing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Chongqing 401147 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the meteorological elements and environmental air quality monitoring data observed synchronously in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the correlation analysis between different atmospheric pollutants and various meteorological factors is carried out, and the meteorological factors affecting the common characteristics of the forecast model are eliminated to identify the meteorological factors significantly affecting air quality. Then combined with the pollutant discharge atmospheric diffusion process and wet sedimentation mechanism, the air quality prediction equation using the mixed mode of power and linear superposition is constructed. The results show that the constructed nonlinear regression equation can accurately reflect the interaction between major atmospheric pollutants and meteorological elements, and the accuracy of the regression model prediction test is satisfactory with a prediction score of 87.6. |
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| Keywords: | air quality meteorological element nonlinear regression |
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