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| 利用NRSM区域模式做温州区域短期气候预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 郑峰,苗长明,张小伟,Sun Liqiang.利用NRSM区域模式做温州区域短期气候预测[J].气象科技,2009,37(1):9-11. |
| 作者姓名： | 郑峰 苗长明 张小伟 Sun Liqiang |
| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省温州市气象局,温州,325027 2. 浙江省气候中心,杭州,310004 3. International Reaserch Institute for Climate Prediction, Columnbia University, Palisades, NY 10964 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，温州市社会发展计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 为了探索地市气象台站短期气候预测的客观预报工具，引进美围NMC（National Meteorological Center）的NRSM（Nested Regional Spectral Model）短期气候模式，利用该模式对台风重灾区浙江省温州市台汛期（7～9月）的短期气候要素——月、季降水量、月平均温度进行预测。将上述要素的模式预报值以及多年平均值进行对比分析，模式对极端降水天气预报效果好，模式预报7月特涝准确率较高，对涝的预测能力较强。；对8、9月的特旱预报准确率较高，对旱的预测能力强；模式对温州各地7～9月台汛期旱涝趋势准确率可达50％～70％；对月平均温度的定量预测能力表现出色；可以将模式进行业务试应用。 |
| 关 键 词： | NRSM 台汛降水 预报准确率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/9/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/3/2008 12:00:00 AM |
Short-Range Climate Prediction with Nested Regional Spectral Model for Wenzhou |
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| Zheng Feng,Miao Changming,Zhang Xiaowei and Liqiang Sun.Short-Range Climate Prediction with Nested Regional Spectral Model for Wenzhou[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2009,37(1):9-11. | |
| Authors: | Zheng Feng Miao Changming Zhang Xiaowei and Liqiang Sun |
| Institution: | 1 Wenzhou Meterological Bureau;Zhejiang Province;Wenzhou 325027;2 Climate Center;Zhejiang Provincial Meterological Bureau;Hangzhou 310004;3 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction;Columnbia University;Palisades;NY 10964 |
| Abstract: | The NRSM(Nested Regional Spectral Model) of the NMC(National Meteorological Center) is used to conduct the short-range climate prediction for Wenzhou during typhoon seasons(July,August,and September) from 1986 to 1995.The monthly and seasonal precipitation and monthly mean temperature during typhoon seasons in Wenzhou are predicted.Comparison is made between the simulated and the observed results,and it is found that the model performed well in extreme precipitation,July severe flood,and August and Septembe... |
| Keywords: | NRSM |
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