| 2022年8月四川盆地持续性极端高温特征及不同模式预报误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周秋雪,冯良敏,陈朝平,刘莹.2022年8月四川盆地持续性极端高温特征及不同模式预报误差分析[J].气象科技,2024,52(2):243-251. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周秋雪 冯良敏 陈朝平 刘莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1 四川省气象台，成都 610072； 2 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室，成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发专项（2021YFC3000905）、四川智能网格预报创新团队（SCQXCXTD 202201）、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室重大专项（SCQXKJZD202101，SCQXKJZD202101 4，SCQXKJZD202101 8，SCQXKJZD202101 12）、四川省科技厅自然科学基金面上项目（2023NSFS0244）、高原与盆地暴雨灾害四川省重点实验室研究型业务面上专项（SCQXKJYJXMS202201）、四川省重点研发项目（2022YFS0540）、西南区域创新团队（XNQYCXTD 202202）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于2022年8月四川盆地104站逐时温度、降水数据和1971—2021年历史同期数据，及EC、CMA GFS、CMA MESO模式的2 m气温预报等数据，运用统计学相关方法分析了此次极端高温过程的特征及预报误差。结果表明：①2022年8月四川盆地极端高温过程范围大、强度强、持续时间长，有87.5%站最高气温超过该站历史同期极值，且高温最强盛时段较历史同期明显推后。②2022年8月最高气温分布为东高西低，最高气温与历史同期极值差分布则相反，其中最高气温随站点海拔增大而减小，而极值差则随站点海拔先增大再减小。另外，受热岛效应影响，极值差大值站点主要集中在龙泉山脉附近。③高温期间，最高、最低气温平均值高、距平大，且累计降水量和雨日数也明显低于历史同期。④相较而言，EC模式的预报优势主要在盆地低海拔地区。而CMA MESO模式在盆地周边陡峭地形区域的平均绝对误差则更小。另外，EC模式预报的最高气温峰值出现时间更接近于实况，而CMA MESO模式预报高温持续日数更接近实况。
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| 关 键 词： | 四川盆地 极端高温 模式预报偏差 复杂地形 城市热岛 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/5/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/12/27 0:00:00 |
Characteristics and Model Error Analysis of Persistent Extreme Heat of Sichuan Basin in August 2022 |
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| ZHOU Qiuxue,FENG Liangmin,CHEN Chaoping,LIU Ying.Characteristics and Model Error Analysis of Persistent Extreme Heat of Sichuan Basin in August 2022[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2024,52(2):243-251. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Qiuxue FENG Liangmin CHEN Chaoping LIU Ying |
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| Institution: | 1 Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072; 2 Heavy Rain and Drought Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the hourly 2 m temperature and precipitation data of 104 stations in the Sichuan Basin in August 2022 and the historical data of the same period from 1971 to 2021, and the 2 m temperature forecast data of the EC, CMA GFS, and CMA MESO models, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and mode prediction deviation of this extreme heat weather process are analysed by statistical correlation method. The results show that: (1) In August 2022, the extreme heat weather process in the Sichuan Basin has a wide range, strong intensity, and long duration. There are 87.5% of stations in the basin that have broken the extreme value in the same period, and the peak period of the high temperature is obviously delayed compared with the same period in history. (2) The distribution of the maximum temperature in August 2022 is higher in the east and lower in the west, and the distribution of the difference between the maximum temperature and the extreme value in the same period is opposite, in which the maximum temperature decreases with the increase of the altitude of the station, while the extreme value difference first increases and then decreases with the altitude of the station. In addition, affected by the heat island effect, the stations with large extreme difference are mainly concentrated near the Longquan Mountain range. (3) During the high temperature period, the average temperature of the maximum and minimum are high, and the anomaly is large. In addition, the cumulative precipitation and rainy days are also far lower than the historical period. (4) In comparison, the prediction advantage of the EC model is mainly in the low elevation area of the basin, while the average absolute error of the CMA MESO model is smaller in the steep terrain area around the basin. In addition, the EC model predicts the peak temperature time closer to the reality, while the CMA MESO model predicts the number of hot days closer to the reality. |
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| Keywords: | Sichuan basin extreme heat mode prediction deviation complex terrain urban heat island |
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