| 南宁市呼吸道疾病预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 董蕙青,字春霞,郭琳芳,郑凤琴,林振敏,李雄.南宁市呼吸道疾病预测研究[J].气象科技,2005,33(6):559-564. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董蕙青 字春霞 郭琳芳 郑凤琴 林振敏 李雄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁,530022
2. 南宁市疾病预防控制中心,南宁,530011 |
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| 基金项目： | 南宁科技局项目“南宁气象条件对人体健康的影响及医疗气象预报研究”（南宁科技攻关20030136C）资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对2001～2002年南宁市2个最大医院呼吸道疾病39305例门诊资料进行小波分析，得出各种疾病发病人数均存在5～7天的周期。将呼吸道疾病发病人数和同期气象要素、大气污染物浓度资料进行相关分析，结果表明，呼吸道疾病发病人数与气温、气压、湿度密切相关，同时与大气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10浓度也密切相关。利用最优子集方法，按不同季节建立呼吸道疾病下周逐日发病人数预测方程，2004年1月支气管炎发病人数预报值与实际值相对误差为16．43％，2004年4月未来1～2天呼吸道疾病发病人数预报值对天气变化的敏感性与实际值基本一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 呼吸道疾病 气象要索 大气污染物浓度 预测方程 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-05-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-08-18 |
Prediction of Respiratory Tract Diseases in Nanning |
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| Dong Huiqing,Zi Chunxi,Guo Linfang,Zheng Fengqin,Lin Zhenmin,Li Xiong.Prediction of Respiratory Tract Diseases in Nanning[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2005,33(6):559-564. |
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| Authors: | Dong Huiqing Zi Chunxi Guo Linfang Zheng Fengqin Lin Zhenmin Li Xiong |
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| Institution: | 1.Guangxi Autonomous Regional Meteorological Office, Nanning 530022; 2. Nanning Center for Diseases Prevention and Control, Nanning 530011 |
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| Abstract: | Based on 39305 cases of outpatients from 2001 to 2002 in two big hospitals of Nanning, it is concluded by using wavelet analysis that there is a 5 -7 day period in the number of patients. The relationship among respiratory tract disease, meteorological factors and pollutant concentrations is analyzed by using the data on the outpatients and the corresponding meteorological conditions and air pollutants. The results show that the number of respiratory tract disease patients is closely correlative with air temperature, air pressure and humidity, as well as the concentrations of such air pollutants as SO2, NO2, and PM10. Meanwhile, the optimal subset method was used to establish the regressive equations for forecasting respiratory tract diseases in the next 1 to 2 days and the next week for different seasons. The regressive equations were tested based on the bronchitis cases of outpatients in January 2004 and the respiratory tract disease cases of outpatients in April 2004, and the results show that the regressive equations are applicable. |
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| Keywords: | respiratory tract disease meteorological condition pollutant prediction model |
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