| 几种降水pH值预报方法效果对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李雄,陆甲,廖国莲.几种降水pH值预报方法效果对比分析[J].气象科技,2008,36(6):701-705. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李雄 陆甲 廖国莲 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区气象局气候中心,南宁,530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科学基金项目桂科青0640026资助
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| 摘 要： | 将4种预报pH值的模式(欧拉酸沉降数值预报模式、神经网络预报模式、动态统计预报模式和集成预报模式),对2005年汛期(5～9月)的预报资料进行了对比,分析了这几种模式预报效果.结果显示:欧拉数值模式有较严重的计算数据溢出;4种预报模式均存在本地化不足问题,预报准确率受城市降水本身的pH值高低影响;内陆城市与沿海城市酸雨可能有不同的发生机制,并对各模式的预报效果产生影响;部分没有阴阳离子的模式在一些城市的预报效果可以接近有阴阳离子的模式.
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| 关 键 词： | pH值预报 欧拉数值模式 神经网络 集成预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/9/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/3/25 0:00:00 |
Effectiveness Comparison between Prediction Models of Precipitation pH |
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| Li Xiong,Lu Jia and Liao Guolian.Effectiveness Comparison between Prediction Models of Precipitation pH[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2008,36(6):701-705. |
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| Authors: | Li Xiong Lu Jia and Liao Guolian |
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| Institution: | Guangxi Autonomous Regional Climate Center, Nanning 530022;Guangxi Autonomous Regional Climate Center, Nanning 530022;Guangxi Autonomous Regional Climate Center, Nanning 530022 |
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| Abstract: | The outputs of four models (Euler numerical model, neural network model, dynamic statistical model, consensus forecast model) for forecasting precipitation pH from May to September 2005 are analyzed and their effectiveness is compared. The analysis concludes that the Euler numerical model often produces data overflow; the four models all has problems in localization; the forecasting accuracy is affected by the local basic precipitation pH level; the formation mechanisms of acid rains in the coast and inland cities differ from each other; in some cities, some models without considering ions performed as well as the models with ions. |
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| Keywords: | pH prediction Euler numerical model neural network consensus forecast |
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