| 灰色预测模型在长江上游流域面雨量预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李才媛,顾永刚.灰色预测模型在长江上游流域面雨量预报中的应用[J].气象科技,2003,31(4):223-225230. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李才媛 顾永刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北省武汉中心气象台,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局“三峡气象保障服务”项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章以数值预报产品为基础，用灰色关联度分析了不同数值预报产品降水量预报的可信程度，应用灰色预测方法建立了长江上游五大流域面雨量预报模型。2001年和2002年6～8月投入业务运行，24h、48h预报平均准确率分别达84．5％和83．2％。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 面雨量预报 数值预报产品 灰色关联度 |
Application of Grey Forecasting Model to Area Rainfall Prediction in Upstream of Chanjiang River |
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| Li Caiyuan,Gu Yonggang.Application of Grey Forecasting Model to Area Rainfall Prediction in Upstream of Chanjiang River[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(4):223-225230. |
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| Authors: | Li Caiyuan Gu Yonggang |
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| Abstract: | Based on the numerical forecast products, the reliability of numerical rainfall forecast products is analyzed by using the grey relational grade and the area rainfall prediction models are established with the grey forecasting methods for five areas in upstream of the Changjiang River. In 2001 and 2002, the grey forecasting method performed well in the operational forecasting practice in summer. |
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| Keywords: | numerical forecasting products grey forecasting grey relational grade area rainfall prediction |
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