| 河北省11个地级市极端气温的分析和预报 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张国华,张江涛,赵玉广,秦莉.河北省11个地级市极端气温的分析和预报[J].气象科技,2003,31(5):273-279. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张国华 张江涛 赵玉广 秦莉 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河北省气象局,石家庄,050021 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 河北省气象台科技基金资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过对影响河北省11个地级市极端气温的诸因素进行详尽的分析，综合经验预报、数值预报等优点，采用逐步回归方法，建立了河北省11个城市的极端气温预报方程。试用结果表明：该方法温度客观预报评分达到80分，特别是在春秋季节和转折、突变的天气情况下，变温幅度较大时，应用效果显著。
|
| 关 键 词： | 极端气温 逐步回归法 气温变化 预报系统 |
Analysis and Forecast of Extreme Temperature in 11 Cities of Hebei Province |
| |
| Zhang Guohua,Zhang Jiangtao,Zhao Yuguang,Qin Li.Analysis and Forecast of Extreme Temperature in 11 Cities of Hebei Province[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(5):273-279. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhang Guohua Zhang Jiangtao Zhao Yuguang Qin Li |
| |
| Abstract: | Through analyzing the factors affecting the extreme temp eratures of 11 cit ies in Hebei Province and integrating the merits of experiential forecast and nu merical forecast, the forecasting equations of extreme temperatures of these 11 cities are established by using the successive regression method. The results sh ow that this method can score 80 in temperature objective forecasting, and even more effective when the amplitude of temperature change is larger during spring and fall, as well as in transitional and break weather conditions. |
| |
| Keywords: | extreme temperature influential factor forecasting sys tem |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
