| 多尺度合成的降水临近预报技术 |
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| 引用本文： | 王珏,张家国,万玉发.多尺度合成的降水临近预报技术[J].气象科技,2008,36(5):524-528. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王珏 张家国 万玉发 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉中心气象台
2. 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于我国新一代多普勒天气雷达观测资料,以梅雨锋等大范围降水为主要研究对象,研究了降水临近预报方法.根据暴雨回波的多尺度特征等,研究暴雨回波的尺度滤波,分割、匹配等处理技术;根据不同尺度回波生命史来约束其预报时效,得到分尺度下的降水预报场,实现暴雨回波多尺度的合成降水量临近预报;将分尺度与不分尺度降水预报结果进行了比较.结果表明,针对大范围强降水多尺度合成的降水量临近预报方法,因不同尺度的回波外推考虑了各自运动的特性及其生命史的差异,预报精度有所提高.
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| 关 键 词： | 梅雨锋降水 多尺度 降水临近预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/10/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/1/24 0:00:00 |
Methods and Techniques of Multiscale Composite Rainfall Nowcasting |
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| Wang Jue,Zhang Jiaguo and Wan Yufa.Methods and Techniques of Multiscale Composite Rainfall Nowcasting[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2008,36(5):524-528. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jue Zhang Jiaguo and Wan Yufa |
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| Institution: | Wuhan Central Weather Office, Wuhan 430074;Wuhan Central Weather Office, Wuhan 430074;Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430074 |
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| Abstract: | The nowcasting methods and techniques for large area rainfall, such as Meiyu front heavy rainfall, are studied on the basis of CHINA/SA radar data. The techniques of multi scale filtering, segmentation, and radar echo matching are discussed according to the characteristics of heavy rainfall echoes. By using the life time of a certain scale echo to restrict the lead time, a forecast can be made for the rainfall at this scale, and total rainfall is obtained through composing. The results show that the accuracy of rainfall forecasting is improved, to some extent, while considering the differences in life time between the echoes of different scales and the moving characteristics. |
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| Keywords: | Meiyu front rainfall multi scale filtering rainfall nowcasting |
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